Tuesday, June 4, 2024

My View of the IWM (06/04/2024)

 

Welcome, Readers,

 

Last week, I spent most of my time traveling. Thankfully, I didn’t miss much. The market saw increased volatility but ended up closing the week mostly flat. However, I believe we have finally gained some clarity in the meantime on the direction the market wishes to take. Attached below is the daily chart of the IWM. It is the only chart I need for this post as the previously identified support and resistance levels remain applicable.

 


You’ll notice on the attached chart that I rearranged my layout. The oscillators are now on the left-hand side and price is now on the right-hand side. The three oscillators are in order from top to bottom as the 14-period RSI, the Composite Index, and the 7-period detrended SMA. I have had some success using the detrended oscillator on longer time horizons and I plan to continue to do so from here on. The blue circles drawn on each oscillator indicate the position the oscillators found themselves in a couple of days ago. The RSI and the Composite index are both recording a failure of the signal just beneath both moving averages and for the RSI directly underneath the moving average crossover. This is an extremely bearish signal. I believe we are beginning the third wave decline and the current wave degree has us attempting to complete wave iii of (iii) of a larger wave I of (III). If do see the follow through I am expecting, this decline should take price down to the 197 level before a corrective bounce in wave II of (III) takes shape. This is where I will look to heavily short the market. Above the 201 level, there is still a chance for the alternative purple count from my previous updates to be valid, but the likelihood of this occurring is decreasing as we move lower in price.

I am currently short three micro M2K futures contracts with a stop at the high struck at RTH open. I will likely close my short-dated June put positions at the end of wave (iii) of this larger wave I and look to restrike after the wave (II) bounce. My update this weekend will lay out the larger degree picture for this decline assuming we see the follow through that I am expecting. As usual, take care of yourself, manage your risk, and always keep learning!

 

Best,

DW

Saturday, May 25, 2024

My View of the IWM (05/25/2018)

 Welcome, Readers,

 

This week, we saw prices trade sideways for much of the week before turning down sharply on Thursday and slowly drifting back up overnight and throughout the day on Friday. My analysis and long-term view of the IWM/RTY remains unchanged. I believe we are in store for a strong bear market in the small caps sector this year. Since I have not covered the long-horizon picture in a few weeks, I thought that may be a good place to start today. Below is the daily chart of the IWM as of the final minutes of trading Friday.


I’ve taken a moment to update the prior counts slightly so that more of the sub-wave structures are labeled. Hopefully, this will help anyone who is learning the Elliott Wave Principle to understand how I arrived at the conclusions that I did. In my view the IWM struck a major top back in 2021. Since then, price has declined in a convincing (a)-wave, then traded sideways in a complex (W-X-Y) structure before turning up to completed its (b)-wave rally into the end of March From there, price turned down at the beginning of April and found a bottom support structure around the middle of the month at the point that I currently have labeled as “(i)?”. Since then, price has retraced almost 100% of this initial decline and has forced me to pick up an alternative bullish count that we will discuss shortly. While it initially looked like price would form a new local high, it was stopped late last week and traded sideways before turning down this Thursday. Let’s take a look at the 1-hour chart to see how this may shake out over the next week or two.

This chart shows the rally coming up from the lows in October 2023 and the best five-wave structure I can provide for it. My primary analysis is the count in white. This count shows us having formed a local top to end March before turning down in the white wave “(i)”. From here we’ve seen price rally in what I initially counted as an (a)-(b)-(c) structure shown in white. However, this retrace was deep. Much deeper than I had anticipated which leads us to the purple count. This is an alternative bullish scenario I am tracking. It is possible to count the entire decline-rally-decline swings from January to mid-April in 2024 as an extremely wide expanded flat corrective structure. This would mean that price is currently working on its final wave (v) to end the larger degree (b)-wave structure before beginning its expected decline in earnest. So, with the decline Thursday where does that leave us? Well, not really much different than when we started the week unfortunately. Price found support right in the same zone as the previous fourth wave correction. This is a guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle that suggests this move from the highs could the next larger degree correction and another push higher is in the cards. Without that crucial support breaking in convincing fashion, I can still see this structure forming a marginally higher high. However, the decline Thursday also showed that there is a lot of downside potential to be seen if the bulls let up even a little. It’ll be an interesting few weeks to be sure. Let’s go ahead and pull up some support and resistance levels from Fibonacci retracements to tell us what we should be on the look out for.

On the chart above there are five support zones shown as groups of green horizontal lines. The yellow lines represent overhead resistance levels. What I need to see to get optimistically bearish is for price to turn back down and bust through the first four green support levels. This would move price beyond the support zone of the previous fourth wave. In doing so, I’d then need to see a full five-wave pattern to the downside develop followed by a corrective retrace that is clearly only three waves. By my count, we’re currently working on the retracement for wave iv of (iii) in the larger (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) structure to the downside. The immediate overhead yellow zone needs to hold for the move down Thursday to keep the impulsive downside potential alive. Otherwise, we will end up with overlap between waves (i) and (iv) and that means this move down from the highs would best count as three waves. This doesn’t invalidate the bearish outlook overall, but diagonals are not the most reliable wave setups to trade. They are also quite rare and would likely mean wave (i) and wave i of (iii) are leading diagonal structures which is less probable in my opinion. Finally, a red line at the top of the page denotes where my white count is invalidated, and I must pivot to the alternative purple count provided in the previous chart. Note that based on my assessments, a pivot to the purple count would seem to occur at a point where minimal upside potential remains. So, I will likely stay flat throughout that entire rally or trade in individual stocks that have strong setups.

What if I’m completely wrong and this turns out to be the great bullish revival of 2024? Well, then after we strike a new local high, we’d ideally see a larger three-wave correction that brings price back to the levels it is currently at or slightly higher before a new series of five-wave moves unfolds. That is where I would look to get long as it would signify the start of a strong third wave move. However, keep in mind that price would need to take out the high struck in 2021 to completely redefine the wave count  on the long-horizon chart.

So, in short, we still find ourselves in something of a “no man’s land” going into the shortened holiday week. One observation I did make while writing this analysis is that there are no observed divergences between price and the Composite Index on the IWM daily, 4-hour, 2-hour, and 1-hour charts. Divergences did not start appearing until we subdivided the decline down to the 30-minute chart. If you read my breakdown of the RSI and Composite Index oscillators, you’ll know that this could signal we have more pain to the downside left to sit through, but only time will tell. Until next time, take care of yourself, manage your risk, and always keep learning.

 

Best,

DW


Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Under the Microscope - A Close Examination of the RSI and Composite Index

 Welcome, Readers,

Today’s article has been a while in the making. I’ve wanted to do a piece on the oscillators I use for two main reasons, both selfish. First, while I understand them well enough to spot the tell-tale signs required to enter and exit a trade, I do not understand them on the depth necessary to help guide my Elliott Wave interpretations. Second, after spending a bit of time in the market I have been trying to find time to sit down and reread several chapters from Connie Brown’s books to refresh myself on some of the more nuanced details about signals in the Composite Index compared to the RSI.

For today’s discussion I am going to focus solely on the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) and Connie’s Composite Index indicator. I have some exposure to the 7-period detrended oscillator, but I want to gain more practice and confidence before attempting to write an educational piece on its use. Right now, I would say that the signals gained from the RSI and Composite Index compose 99% of my trading entries and exits. So, they’re certainly worth the focus. Before we begin, I want to give a little background on both oscillators.

The Relative Strength Index or RSI was developed by Wells Wilder and is used to measure the average number of bars that close up versus the average number of bars that close down within a set number period. For example, the 14-period RSI on a daily chart will measure the average number of up days versus down days across the last 14-days and normalizes that ratio between 0 and 100. For the RSI to develop a value of 0 or 100, the index or stock in question would need to close down 14 days in a row or up 14 days in a row, respectively. The important thing to remember about using a normalized indicator is that the range the oscillator is allowed to travel within is bounded. In other words, the maximum displacement the indicator can ever provide is 0 or 100. In strongly trending markets, such oscillators are known to “lock up”. If you’ve ever used Stochastics or MSI on a trending day you’ll know what I mean. Why do bounded oscillators do this? Imagine you are on a golf course and you want to hit the ball into the hole. However, every time you hit the ball it moves exactly half the remaining distance to the hole. You’ll never get the ball into the hole no matter how hard you try. Even if you are mere millimeters away from the hole, the next tap will only move it halfway there. This is the problem with normalized oscillators, it doesn’t matter how strong the trend is, they will always stuck between 0 and 100.

To alleviate this condition, if you wish to take true trading signals from oscillators alone, it is advised that you pair your normalized oscillator with one that is unbounded (also known as detrended). This means you’ll have a second oscillator on your screen that is allowed to move beyond 0 or 100. In fact, it will move however far is necessary to ensure it tracks with the price action. The Composite Index is used to solve this issue as my unbounded oscillator of choice. The Composite Index was developed by Constance Brown back when she worked with Manning Stoller as she began her trading career in the World Trade Center. The story behind its development is interesting as it came to fruition through a need to introduce additional indicators to a computer screen when there was limited space and windows could not be resized. The solution? Embed one indicator within another. In this case, Connie embedded a momentum indicator within an RSI formula. The formula itself can be found at the following link if you wish to use it (scroll to the bottom it is a free PDF for download).

https://aeroinvest.com/seminars.htm

I will include the code I use for my composite index in the Tradingview platform at the end of the article. It is the same as Connie’s, I just have custom colors and crossover symbols coded into it that can be turned on or off as desired. The oscillator itself solved a very important issue at the time of its creation. On occasion, the RSI is known to not diverge with price, giving no warning that a change in trend is on the horizon. The Composite Index, will frequently diverge with RSI and/or price when inflection points in the market are on the horizon. Therefore, comparing the signals that form between the two indicators can provide depth an insight into critical moments in the price action. To do understand these signals though we will need to look at each indicator separately.

14-Period RSI

The RSI has a unique attribute that is only found when using the 14-period version of the oscillator. Thankfully this is the standard period length most often used in charting software. This unique quality is that in a trending bull market, the RSI will find support between the 40-50 zone and resistance between the 70-80 zone. Connie’s original text in “Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional” states that the resistance zone is 80-90, but I have found 70-80 to be a more common range in today’s markets. In a trending bear market, the oscillator will find support for the signals it develops in the 20-30 range and resistance in the 55-65 range. These are the values given by Connie in her book, but don’t be afraid to make adjustments for specific markets. I’ve coded a version of the RSI that displays adjustable bull/bear support/resistance bands on the indicator represented by blue and orange dashed lines, respectively. In my opinion it helps to see the trend as it develops. An example of these range rules in action is shown in the 1-day bar chart of the SPX below.


There’s a lot to unpack in this image alone, so let’s go one step at a time. At point 1, we see the RSI push the oscillator signal up into the 70-80 region. An important point to note here is that prices have NOT topped in the bull rally. However, the RSI has. Between point 1 and point 2, we see the oscillator decline just below the 40-50 zone that denotes support for a bull market. This is the first clue from the RSI that something may be happening under the hood. At point 2, the oscillator is pushed up into the orange band in the 55-65 range that denotes resistance for a bear market. Compare the RSI here with the price action. This is the point where prices have topped. We would not know this at the time, but the RSI has warned us that we should consider reducing our long positions and look to take some profits here. At point 3, the RSI have moved back down to the lower orange band from 25-35, the support zone for a bear market. If you have not closed your long positions by now, then you will want to the next time the RSI visits the upper orange band. This occurs at point 4. You should have finished unwinding any long positions by now. If not, then you’re in trouble.

Between points 4 and 5, the RSI oscillates between the two orange bands as price continues its slide down. At point 5, the RSI is pushed back above the upper orange band and into the upper blue band just slightly. Much the like the decline between points 1 and 2 that exceeded the lower blue support band for a bull market, a breach into the upper blue band is the first promising sign that a trend reversal is trying to develop to the long side of the market. At point 6, the RSI declines back into the orange band that defines support for a bear market. This may be discouraging to some, as the RSI fails to exceed to the upper orange band at point 7. However, at point 8, the RSI only falls to the lower blue band that denotes support for a bull market. This is the inverse signal to that formed at point 2, the market has found support on the RSI at the point where a bull market takes hold. We should look to get long. From here to point 9, the RSI oscillates gradually upwards between the bottom of the upper blue band to the top of the bottom orange band. It never advances strongly into the lower orange band again before making its way into the upper blue band at point 9. From here, at points 10 and 11 we see similar signals to those that occurred from point 1 and 2, the RSI tells us that a bear market is now in trend. The bounce into point 11 is when you should take profits if you have not already.

These range rules are just the beginning. We still need to look at how signals in the Composite index and the RSI both form during both price declines and advances and combine these signals with an Elliott Wave interpretation. From there we can start to make meaningful trading decisions. Let’s look at the action in the IWM that encompasses the decline from August 2023 into October 2023. This is a good example because this decline should take the form of a five-wave impulsive move as it fills out the final leg of a complex W-X-Y correction (we haven’t covered these yet and is beyond the scope of today’s lesson). We’ll start with the signals given in the RSI first, followed by the signals in the composite index. Afterwards, we’ll compare the signals to construct an Elliott Wave count for the decline. While this example will take place on a daily chart, the final example will take these lessons apply them in real time on a 5-minute and 1-minute chart for a live scalp trade demonstration that I performed today on the RTY. So, let’s begin with the daily chart of the IWM.


Okay, let’s start with the brief rally in July that pushes price to its local high in August. The starting point is marked with a red down arrow to guide your eye. It is also located on the same timestamp for both the chart and the indicator. The first thing that should jump out to you is that price has not found it’s local high at the position of the red arrow where the RSI peaks. This is not uncommon as these formations are often found at the end of strong moves. The strength of the preceding move begins to lose steam and the RSI drops, but there’s often enough underlying momentum to push price just a tad higher. However, the consolidation that precedes this push upwards in price pulls the RSI down and the final thrust higher doesn’t have enough strength to move the RSI back above the previous peak. This leads to the bearish divergence observed at the high going into August.

Let’s look at the remainder of the price divergences. The first divergence that occurs on the decline down accurately warns us that a bounce is coming. What level is the RSI at when this divergence occurs? It’s within the lower orange band I set up earlier that tells us we’ve found support in a trending bear market. Next, we see price pop up and then decrease again as the indicator follows suit. At what level does the indicator turn back down again? That’s right, the upper orange band. This is all I need to see to know we should be looking for a bearish market in the short to intermediate term. For those who have been practicing their Elliott Wave counting, these are waves (i) and (ii). The next divergence occurs when price declines from the 175 level to the 170 level. It also warns that a bounce is coming. This is the end of wave (iii). Finally, we see a larger divergence pattern that marks the end of the downtrend and fills out wave (v).  At this point, I’ve not addressed the sharp spike and reversal patterns that develop in the oscillator, so let’s do that now.

Okay, so on the chart above we have red arrows numbered 1-5 that are placed over each bounce on the indicator and over the corresponding bar in price. We’ve already addressed bounce 1 when we talked about the divergence pattern above. This is a strong bounce that pushes the oscillator above both the short (orange) and long (blue) moving averages that are plotted on the indicator. However, as we discussed, it fails in a “V” shaped pattern within the upper orange band. This is a sell signal or a take profit signal. It tells us that the market isn’t going to be able to rally above the previous high for the short term. At the bounce labeled 2, we see a slight stutter in price that pushes the indicator right into both moving averages. It barely exceeds the moving averages and possesses the same “V” shaped pattern. Look at the relative distance traveled by the indicator compared to price. Price closes at $182.97 on the bar immediately before the bounce. It closes on the bounce at $185.55. That’s only a difference of $2.58. However, this bounce moves the RSI up almost 8 points. When the indicator musters a decent bounce while price barely moves at all, you’re on the wrong side of the market if you position yourself with the indicator. Sell the market here if you haven’t done so yet, because there’s about to be a strong move down. At bounce number 3, it moves through the shorter moving average but is still contained below the longer moving average. If a bounce can’t push the indicator through both moving averages, then there’s more downside to be seen. There are two more bounces labeled 4 and 5 further along in the decline. The first is wave (iv) of our five-wave decline while the second is wave ii of (v). What’s interesting here is that the bounce for wave ii of (v) manages to push the indicator through both moving averages. Typically, the sub-wave corrections for the wave count of one lesser degree won’t push the indicator through the averages. This is a clue that this bounce goes with wave (v) and not waves (i) or (iii). We should start looking for divergences that could indicate a trend reversal is on the horizon. Once we’ve covered the signals from the Composite Index, we’ll be able to combine this information to construct a complete wave count. So, let’s focus our attention there.

The Composite Index


We’ll start our examination by looking for divergences just like we did with the RSI. From the red down arrow that marks our starting point, we see that price once again diverges with the Composite Index, indicating that a top is approaching. However, look at the formation that appears on the Composite Index right near the end of the divergence bars. There is an “M” shaped formation that occurs underneath the short and long moving averages. This is a strong sell signal for this indicator. Moving along, price slides downwards from this high. While the RSI had divergence develop here, there doesn’t appear to be one of the Composite Index. Or is there? Follow the oscillator signal up. You’ll notice that the oscillator is advancing strongly while price is consolidating sideways. What did we say above? If the oscillator moves strongly without price following suit, then you are on the wrong side of the market if you are positioned with the oscillator. About halfway up this advance, there is a small “stutter” in the oscillator signal between the short and long moving averages. This little blip marks the final thrust down to end the first decline in price.  

Price then moves up higher into the green band overhead. The green and red bands are overbought and oversold levels that I drew onto the oscillator using the rectangle tool then extended in the left and right directions. The width of the rectangle doesn’t matter much. In truth, the line that forms the bottom border of the overbought band and the line that forms the top border of the oversold band are what matter. These bands are calibrated using an Elliott Wave count that I have high confidence in and we’ll discuss them more when I go through using the oscillators to help inform Elliott Wave counts. For now, just know they mean overbought and oversold. After price declines again, we see two more sets of divergences. Each one warns that another bounce will occur in price. In addition, the final set of divergences shows up clearly on the Composite index whereas for the RSI, we had to mark a large divergence from the previous move down to receive a warning that a trend change could be developing. It is clear that both indicators provide useful signals and should be paired together, but what about the individual peaks in the Composite index?


In the image above, we see the same five red arrows used to mark the corrective advances in price throughout this decline, but now we have six additional orange arrows we should talk about. The first orange arrow marks the topping pattern formed in the oscillator that I discussed previously. This is the pattern you want to look for on higher time scales if you want to nail the top of a move. It may not always look like this, so review historical data to get an idea for the types of topping patterns your particular market likes to make. Orange arrow 2 marks the initial decline in price. Notice that the maximum of the displacement in the oscillator does NOT occur where price finds support before beginning to turn up. How would we know that the decline is not finished? The oscillator does not form a divergence pattern at the extreme of its peak. Take a moment to look at the divergences that form at the orange arrows numbered 4, 5, and 6. The decline into the orange arrow labeled 2 does not form a divergence near the oversold band and tells us that this is only the start of the larger move down. In my experience wave (i) usually does not diverge with price at the oversold band. The advance in price that leads to the red number 1 moves the oscillator completely up into the green overbought band. However, prices have not struck a new high. This is a bearish signal that implies we’re going to keep moving down from here. Next, we see a decline in price that takes us to the orange number 3. Notice that the Composite index has been pushed back down to the top of the oversold band. There is no divergence with price yet. The bounce up into the red number 2 makes an “M” shaped peak that fails underneath the faster orange moving average. We’re headed back down.

The move down from the red number 2 into the orange number 4 is the strongest move in the entire decline. There’s a noticeable gap that forms in price between the red 2 and orange 4. This would be wave iii of (iii). The Composite index at the orange 4 is pushed back into the oversold band and forms a new oscillator maximum for the move down. No divergence yet, so there’s more pain to be had. From here we see another bounce up into the red 3. We see the Composite index jump above both moving averages. This isn’t a buy signal. Instead, think back to the discussion we had about the oscillator extreme formed at the red number 1 relative to price. At the red 3, price is forming a higher extreme on the oscillator but at a lower price relative to that found at the red point 2. This is wave iv of (iii). Another observation that those used to non-Elliott chart patterns may notice is that the oscillator forms and inverse “head-n-shoulders” pattern using the points found at the orange 3, 4, and 5. Not all “traditional” patters will show up in our oscillators, but I have noticed the “head-n-shoulders” and its inverse to be fairly common formations. We then see price continue down into the orange 5. Notice that the composite index at the orange 5 comes close to the oversold band but doesn’t actually breach into it. Instead, this price extreme forms a divergence with the oscillator and warns that we’re about to see price attempt a rally. The points at the red 4 and 5 form a larger “M” shaped pattern. If you were looking at the oscillators alone, you may see the indicator push back down right into the point where the shorter moving average crosses over the longer moving average. This is a false buy signal. It’s too early. The best way to avoid false signals is to have 2 or 3 non-correlated methods that each tell you something important about price action. The Elliott Wave count I’ve been building in my mind throughout this decline is not complete, so this signal should be ignored. Finally, price declines back to new lows forming the divergence pattern at the orange number 6. The completed Elliott Wave pattern tells me to start looking for a reversal to form.

Wow….that was a lot. So, now that we have the signals from both the RSI and the Composite index outlined, let’s combine them together to construct a wave count for this move downwards in price.

Oscillators and the Elliott Wave Principle


Since we’ve already had a lengthy discussion on the signals in the indicators themselves, I’m not going to go through constructing the wave count step-by-step. Instead, what I want you to focus on are some general guidelines. Wave (i), wave iii of (iii), and wave (v) each move the Composite Index down into the oversold band at the bottom of the indicator. The maximum displacement on the indicator is not always where the wave itself ends. However, this general guideline will help you identify the three waves found throughout the entire move. In bull markets, the trend is flipped and these signals would be breaching into the oversold band at the top of the indicator. In general, I find that wave (ii) will move the indicator back into the opposite oversold/overbought band compared to wave (i). Wave (iv) is usually a weaker bounce compared to wave (ii) based on the indicator alone. In this case, wave (ii) reaches the oversold band on the Composite index while wave (iv) fails just underneath it. Finally, the smaller bounces on both the RSI and the Composite index are useful for constructing the internal sub-wave count for the five waves found in wave (iii). Keep in mind that each wave will have its own character, and these formations are not hard and fast rules, but they are the first thing I look at when constructing a wave count on a new chart.

There is one final point I want to make about using the indicators to construct a wave count. While this example on the daily chart is a good teaching example, how do we know which time horizon should be used to construct a wave count for the current wave degree? Afterall, each of these three waves can easily be subdivided into their own five-wave structures. The answer is to look at how well price respects the 13-period, 33-period, and 88-period simple moving averages plotted on price. The general guideline I use is that price should respect the 13-period SMA for the individual wave structures of waves (i), (iii), and (v). Likewise, the corrective waves (ii) and (iv) should respect the 33-period SMA. When price crosses through the 88-period SMA I know that we’re moving on to a larger degree pattern and I should start looking at the wave counts at one degree higher. An example of these moving averages plotted on price is shown below. You can see how price follows these guidelines.


Okay, so now we have a complete wave count, and we know how to use our oscillators to inform us where we are in the middle of a move. How would we use this information to trade a chart? Originally, I wanted to use Tradingview’s replay feature to walk through an example. However, the decline today in the RTY that started around 3:00 p.m. EST has provided me with a good real time trading example. You’ll have to forgive the clutter on some of the charts as I was trying to annotate my thoughts and still save screenshots as I went, all while managing a trade on the 1-minute chart. As you’ll notice these are 1-minute and 5-minute RTY charts. While the the guidelines we discussed in our previous example were on the daily IWM chart, they will be relevant at all timescales, you just need to make sure you know the timescale that matches your wave count. So, let’s begin with a 5-minute RTY chart I captured at 3:30 p.m. EST today. This is directly after the large move down from the highs of the day.

Live Trade Example


One thing that jumps out to me is that the Composite Index and RSI both show a significant oversold reading that ended the move down. The bounce up comes right above a Fibonacci confluence support zone I drew this weekend. The indicators tell us that the bounce we see at the moment is expected. I need to know what a shorter timescale chart shows so I can see if the initial move up in price to 2086.5 is five waves or 3 waves. I drop down to the 1-minute chart. These charts were captured after I had entered the trade, so you won’t see exactly the same thing I saw, but I needed to enter the trade first instead of focusing on the screenshots.


Okay, when this formed live on my trading screen, price had pushed the composite index up into the overhead red band that forms my overbought level on the 1-minute chart. It looks like the move that takes price to the 2086.5 level counts as five waves to my eyes. The dip that follows retraces approximately half this move up and doesn’t take the Composite Index back to overbought, so the correction isn’t done at this point. The five-minute chart above has a small stutter at the darker pink band. This corresponds to the 50% retracement of the initial move up. I need to wait. This is a trick I learned from Connie. Use two charts in a 1:4 time ratio to each other to track a move. The longer timeframe chart provides information about the larger wave structure while the shorter chart provides the trade entry. The longer chart says the correction isn’t finished and the short-term chart tells me that the first move can count as five waves. That tells me I should be expecting a zigzag for the correction. The most common place for a zigzag to terminate is at a Fibonacci or equality relationship to the first wave. Now look at the Fibonacci extension tool on the screen. In the 1-minute chart, the move terminated just below the 1.0 extension. At this point, the Composite Index is forming a small stutter between the short and long moving averages while the RSI has topped in the upper orange band that defines a bear market correction and failed to exceed its previous high. Likewise, the Composite Index on the five-minute chart has just started to turn over. This is my entry signal. Price can move fast in these timeframes, so I don’t hesitate to short one full RTY contract. My stop goes just above the 88-period SMA on the 1-minute chart. I don’t have time to redraw Fibonacci resistance levels on this timescale, so I decided that if price is going to turn around here I want to be stopped out quick and know I was dead wrong. My take profit is set at 2080, just above the support zone in green below the low of the day. If price is going to finish out a wave (v) it’ll have to get to the support zone at a bare minimum. Let’s see how things advance on the 1-minute chart.


We did well, price declined sharply just after our entry allowing us to move our stop two ticks below for a breakeven entry. This trade is already a success. Sometimes, just learning when to follow your gut and take the entry is good enough. This is a quick momentum scalp. I just want to capture a few points, but if I can get the entirety of the wave (v) decline in price I’ll take it. Let’s keep watching.

It looks like we’ve entered the third wave of this last decline. We move our stop down to just above what I’m considering as the micro wave (ii). This is expected to be a fifth wave and we want to trail our stops close and look for any signs that price is turning around to take our profits.

On the five-minute chart, we’re encountering our first resistance zone. This is the light pink band plotted in the middle of the Composite Index. If I’m wrong and this is part of the larger wave (iv) correction, I expect price to bounce up from here and stop me out.

Here’s an interesting point. Compare the position of the Composite Index in this screenshot to the previous one. Then compare the height of the current bar. The oscillators we use can only see closing prices. This means a signal that seems obvious in hindsight isn’t always there in the middle of a trade. The screen capture now would suggest that we’re in a correction and the decline isn’t done. It would tell me that I can safely stay in my position. However, I’m watching this unfold and always keeping an eye on the signals forming in both charts throughout the trade. I cannot have more than one day trade running at a time unless it is turning into a swing trade. I flip back to my 1-minute chart.

Divergence. The Composite Index has come down and struck the oversold band, then pulled back and attempted to retest the oversold band but fails above it. Price has already come back up to 2085. I quickly change my take profit to a market order and exit the trade.

We made the right decision. Price would have pushed up through my stoploss and I managed to save an extra point. Now that I’m flat on the market, I can reassess and see if there’s a reason to re-enter the position.


 If price is going to come back up above entry then this has to be a larger wave (iv). The retracement I’m seeing is too deep to be a wave (iv). I label the previous three waves as subwaves a-b-c of a larger degree wave (a). The decline I traded was wave (b), and the next leg up should push price back to about 2091. Let’s see what happens.

This chart shows the final chart when I logged off today. The high marked “b” came right up to approximately 2091. However, I was not able to see the subdivisons in price to mark a clear five wave structure in wave (c) that would end the move. It’s extremely likely that a complete five wave pattern is present on the 30 second chart. However, I did not see a compelling re-entry signal from my oscillators, so I stayed flat. It was the correct decision. At this point, the markets are closing, futures tend to drift in one direction for about 15 minutes after RTH closes and with NVDA earnings as a potential catalyst to send price shooting off in either direction, I don’t feel like placing a bet on whether the correction is complete or if we’re going to see a deeper (iv).

Hopefully, this has been a useful article for you. I’ve learned a lot simply by writing all this up to share with you and it’s been beneficial for my trading this week. I’ve started viewing price action in a new lens and this article has forced me to consider the relationships between wave counts and the oscillators at smaller degrees. Until next time, take care of yourself, manage your risk, and always keep learning.


Best,

DW


(PS: The Composite Index code is listed below)

 

 

Composite Index Tradingview Code:

//@version=5

 

indicator(title="Composite Index", shorttitle="Composite")

 

//This first section of the code builds the composite index indicator itself

//None of this code should need to be changed, it simply provides the indicator we'll be using to check for divergences against the standard rsi indicator

 

// Define the Custom MA type function "ma"

ma(source, length, type) =>

    switch type

        "SMA" => ta.sma(source, length)

        "Bollinger Bands" => ta.sma(source, length)

        "EMA" => ta.ema(source, length)

        "SMMA (RMA)" => ta.rma(source, length)

        "WMA" => ta.wma(source, length)

        "VWMA" => ta.vwma(source, length)

 

 

 

//Define variables, moving average, and momentum lengths

 

fastMaTypeInput = input.string("SMA", title="Fast MA Type", options=["SMA", "Bollinger Bands", "EMA", "SMMA (RMA)", "WMA", "VWMA"], group="MA Settings", display = display.data_window)

fastMaLengthInput = input.int(13, title="Fast MA Length", group="MA Settings", display = display.data_window)

slowMaTypeInput = input.string("SMA", title="Slow MA Type", options=["SMA", "Bollinger Bands", "EMA", "SMMA (RMA)", "WMA", "VWMA"], group="MA Settings", display = display.data_window)

slowMaLengthInput = input.int(33, title="Fast MA Length", group="MA Settings", display = display.data_window)

 

 

slow_rsi_length=14

rsi_mom_length=9

fast_rsi_length=3

fast_rsi_ma_length=3

 

//calculate the value of the composite_index

//per CB's book, the index is the 9-period momentum calculation of a 14 period RSI added to the 3-period simple moving average of a fast 3-period RSI....that's it.

standard_rsi=ta.rsi(close, slow_rsi_length)

fast_rsi=ta.rsi(close, fast_rsi_length)

standard_rsi_momentum=ta.mom(standard_rsi, rsi_mom_length)

fast_rsi_ma=ta.sma(fast_rsi, fast_rsi_ma_length)

 

composite_index = standard_rsi_momentum + fast_rsi_ma

 

//calculate a fast and slow moving average to add to the index. CB recommends a 13 length fast sma and 33 length slow sma

composite_index_fast_ma = ma(composite_index, fastMaLengthInput, fastMaTypeInput)

composite_index_slow_ma= ma(composite_index, slowMaLengthInput, slowMaTypeInput)

 

//plot the index and the two moving averages as a single indicator

plot(composite_index, color=color.white, linewidth=1)

plot(composite_index_fast_ma, color=color.orange, linewidth=1)

plot(composite_index_slow_ma, color=color.rgb(40, 240, 240), linewidth=1)

 

// Plot crossing points for easier tracking

plot(ta.crossover(composite_index_fast_ma, composite_index_slow_ma) ? composite_index_fast_ma : na, color = #30fa08, style=plot.style_cross, linewidth = 4)

plot(ta.crossunder(composite_index_fast_ma, composite_index_slow_ma) ? composite_index_fast_ma : na, color = #d630ff, style=plot.style_cross, linewidth = 4)


Saturday, May 18, 2024

My View of the IWM (05/18/2024)

 

Welcome, Readers,

 

I know that I have been a bit quiet of late. I’m still here but have not been trading much this week as I no longer see immediate potential to the upside or downside. I still maintain my swing short positions in the IWM but fully expect my aggressive May short expiration positions to expire worthless and that’s ok. I’ve made a few scalping day trades here and there but nothing that was interesting enough to deserve a full write-up for educational purposes. In truth, I probably shouldn’t have taken any of those scalp trades as they were low probability setups. It is something I must work on going forward, to only take the best-looking setups. With things picking up at my day job, I will likely only be trading on higher timeframes for swing option trades over the next few months (2-hour to daily chart levels) unless we see a significant break of support as I will outline below.

This week, prices in the IWM and RTY continued to grind higher. To be honest, it has exceeded my expectations and have forced me somewhat into a “no man’s land”. The overall big picture through 2024 and beyond remains very bearish to my eyes, but I am not a perma-bear, just someone who wants to stay on the right side of the market and if they cannot stay on the right side of the market, to simply stay out of the market.

Yesterday, the RTY and IWM both ended just shy of their April 1st highs. In accordance with the Elliott Wave principle, the only rule for a wave (ii) retrace is that it cannot move higher in price than the beginning of wave (i). It is also not unusual see a deep wave (ii) retrace at trend changes, especially if the previous trend had significant momentum behind it. So far, the wave (ii) count with downside potential remains in place on this technical rule. However, the is an exceedingly deep retracement and it has forced me to look for alternatives that show some potential near-term strength. Attached is a four-hour charts for the IWM below.


In white, we have the count that I’ve been following the last couple of weeks. It shows the IWM having topped in the b-wave of this larger corrective structure at the end of March and a decline for what I have counted as wave (i) of (v) of the ensuing c-wave. Since then, price has retraced almost 100% of this wave (i) decline. Therefore, the purple count shows a potential alternative. It is possible that the decline at the beginning of 2024, then the run up mid-January to March and the ensuing correction were simply the a-b-c waves of a large and drawn out wave (iv) correction in a pattern called an “expanded flat”. Why would I entertain this as an idea? Well, the wave (ii) correction of the move off the low struck in October was almost non-existent, just a “blip” in the lager degree structure. If one correction in a five wave structure is simple and quick you can expect the other correction to be long and complex. This is Elliott’s guideline of alternation, and it is potentially in action as we speak.

So what would this new alternative allow and how will it change the larger degree picture? My answer is, not much… In short, the purple count would open the door to price striking a higher high in the 213-218 range in the IWM over the coming weeks before starting what I believe could be a large correction to the downside. However, we would need to see the IWM move above the high struck in 2021 (~245) for this larger degree bearish outlook to change, and I just cannot see that happening with the current price structure. So where does that leave us for next week? I'm looking down for a couple of days. Below is a chart of IWM price with both the 14-period RSI and composite index on a 4-hour timescale.


There are notable divergences with price and the RSI in the composite index. This leaves the possibility for two routes. Either we start to see support break indicating that we’ve topped in the entirety of this wave (ii) correction, and we see accelerated downside movement as we enter wave (iii) in the coming weeks/months, or we fill out the purple alternate wave 4 shown in the first chart. If we do see price come down and fill out the purple 4, I may look to take short-dated swing option positions and will post those setups as I see them. Where could this wave 4 terminate? The RTY chart below shows the current support levels as I have them drawn from Fibonacci confluence zones. I like using RTY for support and resistance calculations as it has more data available for plotting Fibonacci confluence zones.

I will be watching price early next week to come into one of these support zones on the RTY contracts and watch for the oscillators to begin turning back up. I will note that we are currently at one of these levels now and it is possible that the wave (iv) correction is over. It is also possible that this could just be the first (a) wave in larger (a)-(b)-(c) for wave (iv). Personally, after the run up the last two weeks, I’d like to see price chop and consolidate at a lower lower level before calling it complete, but the market will do what the market wants to do.

To see more immediate downside potential, I will need to see price decline through the lowest zone in a move that can clearly be sub-divided into 5 waves. Then, the ensuing move back higher needs to be corrective before turning down and taking out the initial low. Only then will I begin to assume we have completed the wave (ii) retrace shown in blue and that the larger decline in price is now underway. Until that occurs, I am no longer looking to get aggressively short in the immediate future without a proper break in the support structure. Until next time, take care of yourself, manage your risk, and always keep learning.

 

Best,

DW


Saturday, May 11, 2024

My View of the IWM (05/11/2024)

 

Welcome, Readers,

 

This is a review of the week’s price action in the IWM. This week, we saw the IWM continue to climb in what I currently believe is the wave (ii) pullback of a larger degree five-wave decline. We saw some promising action on Wednesday that could have signaled a top in wave (ii). However, price rallied on Thursday striking a new overnight high in the RTY futures before beginning a sharp decline into RTH open on Friday morning. The two 1-hour IWM charts below summarize where we began the week and where we ended the week.


It appears based on the bottom chart that we may have completely filled out the final bars of the wave (ii) pullback overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. What I am looking for now is an initial five-wave decline to signal the start of the larger-degree third wave. This wave should take price all the way down to the 160-170 region in the IWM. The decline itself should also be subdivided into five separate waves of which waves 1, 3, and 5  of that smaller-degree five-wave structure should also subdivide into their own five-wave structures. That’s simply what it means for markets to be fractal in nature. If we look at the 15-minute chart on the IWM shown below, you can see that I have labeled the decline into the end of Friday as wave i with a question mark.


There are three things I am looking for to convince myself that this really is wave (i) of the larger decline in price. First, I want to see if this structure can cleanly subdivide into its own five-wave structure. Second, I want to see an overlapping and corrective pullback that terminates into a micro resistance level. Third, I need to see price turn back down and take out the low of the day struck towards the end of trading on Friday. For starters, we should be able to find the answer to the first of these three criteria on the 5-minute chart. Let’s take a look.

I’ve labeled what I believe to be the sub-wave structure of this initial decline in price. We see a small wave (i) and deep retrace for wave (ii), a large wave (iii), a wave (iv) retrace, and a drawn out wave (v) that saw several extensions lower in price. For clarity, I’ve tried to differentiate between the prior wave labels in wave (ii) and the labels for this new decline in wave (i) of (iii) with blue and red coloring. I’m satisfied with this micro five-wave structure.  As for the corrective wave (ii) retrace that I’m looking for, I need it hold micro resistance levels directly overhead in price. In other words, no new higher highs. I’ve used Fibonacci confluence zones to sketch out the overhead resistance levels in red on the chart below.


The lowest level of overhead resistance at ~205 is where I am expecting price to turn down first. It is the level that coincides with the fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case wave iv of this initial wave (i). This is a guideline from the Elliott Wave principle which states that a corrective retrace often terminates in price within the vicinity of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. You’ll see that the first resistance level coincides closely in price with this area. So, I’ll look there first. I will note though that the only true rule for wave (ii) is that it cannot retrace 100% of wave (i). Therefore, I’ll look as high as the 205.75 level in price for a retrace. Should we see a corrective retrace into these levels, I then want to see price take out the low of the day on Friday. If this occurs, we should start to see a rapid decline as we enter the “third-of-the-third” or wave iii of (iii). This is the strongest wave in any move. Below I’ve included a projection for what the larger-degree five-wave structure may look like on the 15-minute chart if we see follow-through in the coming days. Should we retrace higher on Monday followed by a decline that takes out Friday’s low I will look to enter an aggressive short position as well as add to my existing short swing options.  The analysis I have provided here is very similar for the RTY/M2K futures contracts. I will also look for opportunities and setups there as well.

For those wondering, I did not short the decline in RTY Friday morning. I missed my entry signals. That’s why you didn’t see an analysis article from me on a trade playing that decline. However, it did serve as an excellent early-warning alarm for the other indices, and I made a decent entry on the micro NQ futures. Sometimes, an index you are watching happens to lead the others and if you are quick, you can make a go at a position in one of those. Now for the full disclosure, I gave a significant portion of those NQ profits back to the market attempting to reload shorts on what I believed to be end of its wave (iv) retrace. I should have stopped myself out and waited for a complete retrace and entry signal, but I got greedy and stopped focusing on what had worked for me all last week. I ended the day with a P/L of $36 rather than $295. Lesson learned, control your emotions and manage your risk. Keep my mistakes in mind and learn from them as you move into next week  Until next time, take care of yourself, manage your risk, and always keep learning.

Update #1 (9:45 a.m., May 13): Wow, we came up a lot higher than I was expecting. Even though we traded past my resistance levels, we managed to hold the high struck last Thursday. I opened an additional swing short position in the expectation of a larger decline coming throughout this month.

BTO 6x IWM 201P (May 23 expiration, average fill 1.42)

Best,

DW

 


Wednesday, May 8, 2024

RTY/M2K Short Trade Analysis (05/08/2024) - Position Closed

I re-entered a short position today at RTH close on the RTY/M2K futures. The decision to re-enter this trade (which we exited earlier this morning) was based on the combination of a potentially completed EW corrective pattern, a lack of proportionality in the initial decline, and technical indicators showing divergence under resistance levels. This is a speculative trade with a high probability of failure, but I strongly believe the initial decline is not yet complete. Even with the potential for a larger diagonal structure to give us a higher high, the analysis said it was a good probability set up to take a speculative short on this initial five wave pattern completing. Starting with the 15-minute RTY chart below, I’m showing you my interpretation of this initial decline off the highs. We have a clear 3 waves down and a potential fourth wave that is completing just as the regular session closes on the U.S. exchanges.



The reason I believe strongly that we could see follow through on this decline is because the initial five wave structure for the decline from yesterday's high is not complete. This decline really counts best as three waves and the proportionality appears to be off. We can assessed this by measuring a box from yesterday’s highs to the internal wave iv of wave (iii). This is usually the location where the decline is ~50% completed. Projecting a second box shows that we could see a decline in price to the area around 2040-2045 to give more complete proportions for this swing down. Another interesting observation for me is that price has come almost right up to and touched the same price level where these two boxes meet. This is a guideline in Elliott Wave counting which says that the fourth wave will often terminate in price within the vicinity of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case it would be wave iv of (iii).



 

In addition, you’ll notice new lines drawn on this chart in magenta. These are Fibonacci confluence zones drawn using the internal markers of this initial move down. The measurement zones started at the truncated bottom and terminated at the end of wave (ii), the strongest bar in the decline that ends at (i), and the HOD from yesterday. You can see that price has come up into one of these zones. The fact that price has hit a confluence zone with a potentially completed EW pattern is a reason I’m interested in selling. Let’s see what the indicators say.



The 1-hour chart shows the 14-period RSI coming up into the 45 period EMA. It seems to be acting as support so far, but I will admit I am concerned that it is using the 45 period EMA as support instead of the 13 period SMA. This tells me that if we do see price turn down, it’s likely the final wave before a larger correction. The composite index (middle oscillator) shows price at an overhead resistance line (not entirely a reason to sell, but reasonable). Finally, the detrended SMA has also reached the support line and is showing a potential rejection. If I can get a confirming signal on the 15-minute and 5-minute charts I’ll go short here.



The 15-minute chart shows that the 14-period RSI could continue higher. It’s already used the 45-period EMA as support once to keep the bounce going. However, the composite index and the detrended SMA are diverging with the RSI and that tells me that there may be some weakness on the Bull’s side of the market. Not much else here other than to note that if this signal is valid, I may need to go back and reassess where I place my overhead resistance lines on the detrended SMA. Can the 5-minute chart give us any confirmation?





On the 5-minute chart we can see divergence between price/RSI and both the detrended SMA and composite index. It’s not the strongest signal, but it is enough to convince me to take the trade. I set a buy limit right at the border of the confluence zone at 2066. My stop is set at 2073, above the confluence zone two zones up (I believe the confluence zone directly overhead may be part of a much wider confluence zone). Despite my calculator saying I can short 6 contracts with a price target of 2045 and a 3-to-1 R/R ratio, I decide to limit my risk and only short 4 contracts as this could go either way.

Shortly after placing the trade, price rapidly declined from 2066 to 2062. I’m up on this trade, but price has since turned up in what could be an extension higher or simply a micro scale wave ii as part of this wave (v) decline. The RSI on the 15-minute chart has bounced off the shorter moving average (that’s not a bearish signal). While I may have the direction correct, I may have entered my position too early. I have moved my stop to breakeven at 2065.2 and we will see what happens during the overnight futures session.

 Update #1 (10:06 p.m. May 8, 2024): I'm seeing more bullish signals on the oscillators. I assume I'll get stopped out overnight. If so, not a big deal. I knew this one was lower probability anyway. If I see price action tomorrow that convinces me we should see another wave up as part of a larger diagonal structure, I may look to get long. It should take the form of  three-wave structure that can be subdivided into 'a', 'b', and 'c' waves. The 'c' wave should be a clean five-wave move and I would look for that structure to get long. It is possible that the 'a' and 'b' waves completed today but I am not sure. Need more clues from the price action and the 1-hour oscillators.

Update #2 (~5:30 a.m. May 9th, 2024): I did not sleep well, but quickly checked the overnight action. We're up a little more, but the price action is very overlapping and hard to make out any impulsive structure. I move my stop down from breakeven to 2060.7, just over the last spike high in the overnight session.

Update #3 (~8:15 a.m. May 9th, 2024): Got some more sleep and feel better. Got the notification around this time that I stopped out. May look to re-enter a singular short position right before the unemployment data drops. I was looking to cover 3 positions and leave a single one on with a stop at B/E on the chance we gap down from higher than anticipated unemployment this past week. Instead I stopped out on all 4. If I re-enter it will be just before the data drops with a stop at my original position of 2073.

Update #4 (8:28 a.m., May 9th, 2024): I re-entered the trade with a single short contract at 2061. Stops were set to my original B/E at 2073. Data drops in 2 minutes.

Update #5 (8:40 a.m., May 9th, 2024): Well....we did not gap down, but we also have not hit my stop yet. We did gap straight into a major confluence zone of resistance around 2070-2074. I shorted 2 contracts in this area, the 1-minute and 4-minute detrended oscillators show a double top formation. Stops were set at 2077 for this new trade. I still have the one I entered earlier as well. We'll see what happens at RTH open. If I have time this weekend, I'll write up my thoughts on why I decided to re-short from the gap up on the news.

Update #6 (9:45 a.m., May 9th, 2024): Moved all my stops to 2065. I probably moved them down too early, but if there is a bullish alternative, it is that we are completing the micro 'c' wave of (ii) to a new higher high. Price shouldn't come back to 2065 if so. If we remain in a bearish down trend to start a new wave, we should see a much larger decline in price from here on. As I am writing this my stops were hit. I'm flat on the market now, going to wait and reassess before jumping back in. A small winner, but still a winner.

 

Trade Summary

Short 4 M2K @ 2066

Close 3 M2K @ 2060.6 (banking 162 total ticks or $81)

Close 1 M2K @  2060.5 (banking 55 total ticks or $27.50)

Short 1 M2K @ 2061

Short 2 M2K @ 2068.6

Close 3 M2K @ 2065 (banking 32 total ticks or $16)

Total: +249 ticks ($124.50)


Best,

DW

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

RTY/M2K Short Trade Analysis (05/07/2024) - Position Closed

 

Welcome, Readers,

 

Today is a trade summary of my short currently underway in the RTY (well in the micro contracts at least). I actually tried two shorts, the first I got into early on a speculative position and was stopped out in quick fashion. Today, I’ll be summarizing my second short position that I opened on the Russell 2000 futures today. You can see a short summary of the trade on the chart below.


 

You’ll need to reread my previous analysis to understand why I was looking for price to reach these levels before considering my entry. To start with, price came up into the second confluence zone that I had drawn in my previous update. I mentioned that at this price level, the swing up from the prior lows would have good geometric proportions and satisfy a full five waves up to complete the micro ‘c’ wave of our wave (ii) correction. I’ve included a count of the internal wave structure in the image below to show you how I arrived at this conclusion.


 


However, as I wrote in my last update, just because price has entered a target zone, it does not mean I am immediately going to trade it. I need the chart to convince me through price action and technical analysis. So, let’s look at the 1-hour chart. My trading charts are split into left and right zones. The left-hand side is price action, the right-hand side are my technical indicators. For this analysis, I used the standard 14-period RSI (top oscillator on the right), the composite indicator developed by Constance Brown (middle oscillator on the right), and a simple 7-period detrended oscillator (bottom oscillator on the right). You can find more information about the composite index and its formula on Connie’s business website (aerodynamic investments). There is a default version that someone has coded on tradingview. I coded my own to make sure that it looks the way I prefer. On the RSI, the moving averages are a 13 period SMA and a 45 period EMA. On the composite index, the moving averages are a 13 period SMA and a 33 period SMA. These values are important for defining trade signals.

 


Okay, so the 1-hour chart shows us that the RSI is currently oversold with the value peaking at ~77.5. This tells me we’re due for a correction. Unfortunately, without a stronger signal this may only turn into a scalp trade, but we’ll see how things develop. I’m not going to buy however, simply because the RSI says we’re oversold. For that I’m going to turn to the composite index. It’s currently showing us a signal that is bouncing off of the top magenta line drawn on the oscillator. The horizontal lines drawn on my oscillators are all areas of support/resistance where corrections or trend changes have developed in the past. These levels continue to act as support and resistance in the future. I set these lines up a week ago and have been following price action off of them during this entire corrective rally. One note though that is important to remember, you need to set the levels for oscillator support and resistance for each timeframe you use. I use 1-hour, 15-minute, and 5-minute charts for my trading signals, so I will set up different horizontal lines on each time horizon. We can also see that the 7-period detrended oscillator is coming up to meet its resistance line as well, but exceeds it slightly, and instead stops at the same magnitude as a prior "M" shaped pattern where corrections typically form. I'm not as familiar with using the 7-period detrended oscillator so my levels may be off. I'll make a note to reassess that later. I’m interested in selling this price level, but I want to know my entry timing. For that I’m going to look at the 15-minute chart


 

The 15-minute chart above shows that both price and the RSI are currently diverging with both the composite index and the detrended oscillator. This is a signal to me that we’re nearing the end of this move and I should be ready to find an entry point soon. Note that the composite index shows a green line that has acted as support. When the composite index reaches this level, I’m going to assess if this trade is a scalp or a swing trade. If I believe we’re only going to see a minor corrective bounce, then I’ll leave my position on. If we move up sharply in price and the composite index barely budges, then this rally has more gas in the tank and this is a minor correction in my opinion. Now I’m going to look at the 5-minute chart to take my entry.

 


Here on the 5-minute chart I do not have lines drawn on my oscillators yet. However, we see that the RSI is relatively flat/weakly diverging with price while there are strong divergences with the composite index and the detrended oscillator. I look and see that price has already made a small decline and I enter a sell order at 2086.3. I use the calculator I released in an earlier update on managing risk to determine the spread between my entry and exit. Since this is an aggressive entry, I’m setting my stop beyond the top confluence zone shown in the first image and just beyond the even round number of 2100 at 2101. My calculator says that with my current liquidation level I can afford to short three M2K contracts for a maximum risk of 3% or less. My order is filled and we’ll see where this goes.  See you all later with an update.

 

Update #1 (~4:00 p.m. May 7th, 2024): Stops have been moved from 2101 to breakeven including fees and commissions at 2085.5. Since this was a speculative entry without strong confirmation from oscillators on the 1-hr timescale, I am willing to let the trade ride, but I want to make sure that if I am stopped out, it's not for a loss.

Update #2 (7:47 a.m. May 8th, 2024): Moved my stop from breakeven to 2076. Just over the top on the large spike up that happened last Friday morning. Current P/L at stop: 103 ticks ($51.5/contract). Managing risk is extremely important. I believe the strong bar down at RTH close yesterday is wave (iii) of a larger wave 1 move down in price. Price should not come back above 2074 if this is correct. We will see.

Update #3 (8:36 a.m., May 8th, 2024): This move down is coming along faster than I had originally anticipated. I am worried this could be a sharp zig/zag correction as part of a larger diagonal structure an alternative that I am now beginning to entertain as an option for one more push higher. I may look to take profits soon or trim my position if the indicators on my chart begin bouncing up. We should be due for some upward movement soon.

Update #4 (9:03 a.m., May 8th, 2024): I closed 2 of my 3 short positions leaving on a single runner with a price target of 2045. This is the 50% subdivision of the box made in my IWM/RTY analysis post that went up on May 7th. I believe we should see a correction soon and have decided to trim my position as we had struck my initial price target going into the decline of 2054-2055. (current low is 2054.8 at the time of writing). The 15 minute RSI is very oversold and the oscillators I use are starting to turn up. I DO NOT THINK THIS DECLINE IS OVER. However, I wanted to lock in profits and will look to short again after a bounce and failure of the oscillators under overhead resistance. The stop for the runner is unchanged at 2076. If I am incorrect and we do continue lower, the last open contract and my swing trade option positions on the IWM will provide good profits. I do not want to try and play corrective bounces with long futures contracts (counter-trend trading EW patterns is a recipe for disaster that I made plenty of times in my paper trading). I've inserted a small summary below to denote the trade statistics. Perhaps I'll keep a running tally to see how many points we bank over the next year following this trading strategy.

Update #5 (9:45 a.m., May 8th, 2024): I closed the runner as there was seller exhaustion following RTH open and could not break support down to my next subdivision target of 2044. If buyers can push price into the 13 period SMA on the 1-hour RSI oscillator and it is rejected, I will look to re-short more contracts with a tight stop, but those levels will need to be calculated first.

Update #6 (1:25 p.m., May 8th , 2024): There was a viable short setup that developed on the swing up into 2065. I was not near my computer at the time to watch the tape and take the trade. Waiting now to see if that was the entirety of the correction (it did swing directly into a Fibonacci confluence zone and get rejected. It was also the level of the 38.2% retrace of the move down off the high yesterday, so it could be the entire correction for wave (iv) of a larger wave (i) down.). If the entire correction is not finished, price will likely extend back towards 2065 or 2070 where I would look to re-enter a short position if the setup  presents itself.


---Trade Summary---

Short 3  M2KM contracts @ 2086.30

Close 2 M2KM contracts @ 2057.3 (banking 580 total ticks or $290)

Close 1 M2KM contract @ 2059.3 (banking 270 total ticks or $135)

Total: +850 ticks ($425)


Best,

DW